Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
